Election Analysis 2

Grass Roots Advocacy - PAC Development - Election Analysis

★2008 ELECTIONS★

The November 2008 Elections proved many well tested adages about elections and we the voters. We sometimes vote “for” a candidate and we sometimes vote for “against” a candidate or situation. In 1948 we voted against the Korean war. We voted against war (Viet Nam) again in 1968. Presidents Truman and Johnson knew this and did not run for re-election as a result. In 1976 we voted against Nixon, Watergate and the Ford pardon and elected Jimmy Carter. We voted against Carter in 1980 after his dismal showing as a President. In 1984 we voted for Ronald Reagan and he won 49 states.

In 2008 we voted against George W. Bush, the war in Iraq, his handling of the Hurricane Katrina relief effort and the economy. We voted against John McCain after Sarah Palin couldn’t name the newspapers she read and felt that being able to see Russia from parts of Alaska gave her foreign relations expertise. We also for against McCain after he suspended his campaign to got to Washington, DC to “fix” the economy. At the same time, we voted for Barack Obama because he comes across and an intelligent and likable guy (which he is) and his promise of CHANGE. You’ll remember that every one of his speeches and ads used the word change as the centerpiece.

★2009 ELECTIONS★

The recent gubernatorial races in VA and NJ in November 2009 show that;

1)voters have short memories and have made the economic recession and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Barack Obama’s responsibility and not George Bush’s responsibility. Obama was elected for change and it has not come fast enough for many voters on the issues of the economy and the two wars.

2)many feel the health care legislation will ruin the private insurance industry because it is impossible to compete with a government run program that does not need to make a profit and does not pay taxes. Also, many feel that Medicaid, the Post Office, etc. are examples of government bureaucracy run amuck.

3) independent voters are the key to ALL election victories. Independents voted heavily for Obama in 2008 and largely abandoned Democrats in the VA and NJ Governor’s races.

★2010 and 2012 ELECTIONS★

223 years of history tells us that America is a centerist/rightist nation so the political pendulum always swings left to right and then back to the center, the question is when. In 1980 and 1984 we elected Ronald Reagan because we decided we had too much government. In 2008, we elected Obama because we decided we did not have enough government. At some point, we will make Obama and the big majorities Democrats have in both houses of Congress responsible all our societal woes and vote out many simply because they have “D” behind their name. In 2008, Republicans are held in such disdain that we voted for almost anyone with a “D” behind their name. Are the Republican victories in the NJ and VA Governors race the start of this?

Democratic candidates for Congress elected in 2008 in Republican or swing districts riding Obama’s considerable coat tails will be voted out of office or win re-election in 2010 by much more narrow margins for three reasons. 1) They will not have Obama at the top of the ticket to bring young, black and independent voters who were a major part of their 2008 victory. 2) Many Republican candidates will run on a platform of “those Democrats need some checks and balances in Washington.” And 3) Republicans will run on the 2010 version of “Change” by saying we sent those Democrats to Congress and nothing has happened. This anti-incumbent feeling was visible in N.J. where the Democrat, Jon Corzine lost, in VA were the Republican won even thought the incumbent Governor (prohibited by law from running for re-election) and President Obama campaigned for him and in NYC where Mayor Bloomberg won with 51% of the vote even though he outspent his opponent 20 to 1.

Obama will, of course be the Democrats Presidential nominee in 2012. The Republicans have many people to choose from. Watch who visits Iowa and New Hampshire in the next few years and you’ll see Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, a few Governors and Senators making the trip to these important early caucus and primary states. There is an adage in politics that “no politician ever made a casual visit to Iowa.”